Stock Watchlist 5 April 2021

Hope you had a relaxing long weekend away from the screens, and ready to get after it this week & month ahead! According to the Stock Traders Almanac – April is the best Dow Jones ($DIA) month (average 1.9% gain) since 1950. April exhibits strength after tax deadline in recent years. In addition, stocks anticipate great first quarter earnings by rising sharply before earnings are reported, rather than after. Also notes, end of April sees NASDAQ strength. “Rarely a dangerous month, recent exceptions are 2002, 2004, and 2005.”

QQQ – since Feb 25th, the 8EMA has been below the 21EMA, which has caused many tech names to retreat. The good news, as of Thursday April 1st, marks the first day the 8EMA closed above the 21EMA again. This coincides with us heading into Earnings season, where many of the tech names ‘should’ begin to heat up and run up into those reports. Many times we see the anticipation runs leading up to the earnings be larger than the post-earnings move itself. This presents some good swing opportunities, in addition to the EMA situation improving after the sell-off end of February into a choppy/downtrending March. Keep in mind we created a gap up from Wednesday into Thursday that may want to get filled before attacking the upper gap fill zone.

Key levels to watch and set alerts on:

Levels above – 324.71 > above 326.50 leads to gap fill > 327.80 > 329.97 > 331.02 > 333.99

Levels below – if 322.81 breaks down then we’re looking at a gap fill to the downside, to fill the big move from Wednesday into Thursday of last week > 321.90 > 320.74 > 319.13 – ideal scenario, IMO would be to fill that gap below before we continue higher

SPY – hit all time highs in the shortened holiday week. Being that it’s up at highs, there’s not much resistance above. Look for whole numbers such as 402, 404, 405 to serve as potential areas of rest. RSI still has room to run higher before entering overbought territory on the daily.

TSLA – Simple swing trade strategy that can be used on any stock/index – go long over 20 SMA & ride it until a close below 20 SMA. Best with shares, long dated options, or sell vertical put credit spreads (a bet that TSLA won’t go below a certain level and puts expire worthless, thereby you collecting the premium) – see this video for reference on this strategy: https://youtu.be/MH979MfOehw

Tesla’s Q1 delivery numbers blew out Wall Street’s expectations, which combined with Earnings on May 5th + close over 20 SMA should spark a nice rally in this one. Recently she’s been a daytraders stock with the volatility, but I am noticing her price action is now shifting into a bullish momentum which should provide some nice swing trade opportunities. TSLA is one stock you can get OTM calls 2-3 weeks out and crush it when it’s in a nice upward trend.

Upgrades starting to come into the stock as well which will boost & pump prices into earnings: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-upgraded-by-wedbush-after-paradigm-changer-delivery-numbers-11617588057

Key levels to watch and set alerts on:

Levels above – 699.62 > 703.73 > 707.92 > 713.18 > 726.15 > 737.21 > which opens up the gap fill from 762.62 to 781.30

Levels below – 659.42 > 646.62 > 628.54 > 596.02 – IMO least likely levels to revisit, especially with QQQ now showing more strength/stability

DIA – direction will come from whichever way this triple inside candle breaks. A powerful move is likely whether up or down when you see multiple inside candles. My best guess is it will break higher based on the 3 day buying wave that preceded the inside candle consolidation. If this breaks out higher, the FDX swing will do well.

BA – continues to be a heavy watch for me based on this weekly chart. Over 258 opens up a nice run back to 275

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