Stock Watchlist 21 Dec 2020

Good morning y’all & Happy Holidays! Reminder: shortened trading week. Thursday 12/24 (Christmas Eve) market closes at 1Pm, Friday 12/25 (Christmas Day) market is closed.

As of this writing 8:42Am most stocks are down pre-market. The main exception are bank stocks – due to Friday after market close the Federal Reserve came out saying they approve banks buying back their stock after stress-tests show strong capital levels at banks. This caused an after-hours price jump in financial sector (XLF) including bank stocks BAC, JPM, GS, etc.

The long awaited covid stimulus bill was agreed upon Sunday for $900B. The bill includes $600 in stimulus checks, jobless benefits of $300 per week, and more small business funding. Also includes $15B of airline payroll support. The other piece of this bill has to do with the Federal Reserve’s lending powers. The voting is set for Monday.

In addition, UK has imposed the strictest lockdown measures since March due to a “new strain” of covid which “spreads more easily”.

Take note: Red/weak Friday’s usually lead to Red/weak Monday’s, and vice versa when Friday’s are Green/strong for stocks.

AMD (long swing) – Full disclosure: currently long AMD via calls/shares. AMD has been in a strong uptrend ever since breaking out of a weekly consolidation range. We closed at the highest weekly level on Friday and hit all time highs of $97.98.

Key levels to watch and set alerts on:

$93.56 – Last Friday’s low, and $92.50 – AMD’s pre-market low as of today – this would be a must hold level for higher prices

$91.85 – last week’s low, a break below will negatively affect the short term uptrend that was established 3 weeks ago

$95.92 – Friday’s close – an important level to hold this week for higher prices, a dip below is ok but must reclaim this level on a weekly close for continued momentum to the upside

$97.68 – previous 4hr candle high – a break above this would likely lead to the break of ATH (all time high) at $97.98 which was put in last week. Above this opens the door for the $100+ mark, where I’d be locking in some profits.

PG (long swing) – Full disclosure: I am long PG via Calls/shares. I like PG especially for beginner traders and swing trades. It moves much slower than the AMD/AAPL/TSLA types, but generally provides good direction once it establishes a trend. PG is a consumer staple stock which tends to do well in most market environments, because everyone needs these essentials. Ex. toothpaste, diapers, laundry detergent, etc.

Key levels to watch and set alerts on:

$140.07 – last week’s high – must get above this for the uptrend to be established out of this consolidation range. Above this, we’re looking at $144 pretty quickly, and then a possible test of $146.92 (all time highs) – I believe this one continues to grind higher, albeit slowly, which is why we have a longer dated position in call options.

$139.04 – last Friday’s close – Friday saw huge volume, way above it’s average at 20 Million shares traded. This could be an indicator for higher prices in PG. Must hold above this level on a weekly close to continue it’s uptrend. Seeing the 8EMA curl up on the daily chart, and will cross the 21EMA and 55EMA if it continues to build above the $139.04 mark, which will cause algo’s to push this higher.

$137.45 – last Friday’s low of day – must hold this level on a closing basis or else the weekly green candle becomes invalid and we look at potentially lower prices to come for PG. (least likely scenario, IMO)

$137.27 – pre-market lows on PG – we want to see this level hold up

AAPL (long swing) – Full disclosure: long AAPL via Calls/shares. Apple has been on watch for us for a few weeks now, with the week of 11/30 having it’s highest weekly close in over 13 weeks at $122.25. This was the signal for higher AAPL prices. The following week (12/7) it closed slightly higher again at $122.41 after hitting $125.95. Last week (12/18) it had a strong close of $126.655 after hitting highs of $129.58. Seasonality is in Apple’s favor, in addition to Earnings coming up on Jan 26th, which should provide continued momentum/hype for this one.

Key levels to watch and set alerts on:

$126.655 – we want to see it hold above Friday’s close on a weekly close for continued upside momentum

$126.12 – Friday’s low of day – if the stock holds below this level for too long it will signal a weakness in the bulls and encourage bears to step in to push it down

$123.84 – pre-market lows on AAPL for Monday morning, must hold above this for continuation higher

$122.41 and $121.54 a break and close below these levels will signal a halt to it’s most recent price uptrend (least likely scenario, IMO) but we set alerts regardless and follow price momentum no matter what

$129.10 – Friday’s high of day, this level will be key to break above

$129.58 – the next level to break above which opens the door to retest it’s all time highs at $137.98 (peak stock split hype in September)

HD (long swing) – Full disclosure: long HD via Calls/shares. I bought shares at the lower end of this weekly trading range, then initiated a call position which we took 30-40% gains on. I then re-entered on a dip and looking for continued momentum to $275-$280 range at minimum. Swing is invalid if we break and close below $270.30 on the daily chart.

Key levels to watch and set alerts on:

$266.19 – pre-market lows – cannot stay below this level for long or the swing trade will be invalid

$270.45 – Friday’s close – we want to see price above this on a weekly close

$271.50 and $272.67 – levels to watch if it breaks above will signal momentum back to the upside

$275 and $275.74- levels needed to break for a move to $280 level

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